ARB market file Rank #68

Arbitrum

$0.1969-3.83% 24h

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Market signalNeutral46 / 10030D +45.43% · 91.8% below ATH

Market cap: $1.34B
Rank: #68
Volume (24h): $191.3M14.3% of cap
Circulating supply: 6.79Bof 10B max
Fully diluted value: $1.97B

PRICE HISTORY

Arbitrum price chart

Loading Arbitrum price history…

MODEL SCENARIOS

Arbitrum price prediction

How far Arbitrum could move over the coming weeks and months, read from its own past year of daily moves, with the evidence behind each range. Recomputed daily.

Horizon

Reference close$0.1973

Median outcome$0.1605 -18.7%

Target dateJan 1, 2027

ARB 90-day range

Actual
Median
50%
80%
95%

Explore the horizon · Day 90 · Jan 1, 2027

$0.1605 median -18.7% · 80% band $0.086–$0.3024

Actual daily closes from Oct 4, 2025 to the $0.1973 reference close on Oct 3, 2026. The median and the 50%, 80% and 95% bands extend to Jan 1, 2027.

How this prediction is built

Dextape resamples Arbitrum’s own daily price changes to estimate a range of possible future prices. The model replays the observed daily returns in random order along 1,200 paths, then reads the spread of outcomes at each day of the horizon. It shows how wide outcomes have been, not where the price will go, and it is not investment advice.

01
Return sample
365 observed daily log returns from the trailing year, used as drawn.
365 days
02
Bootstrap paths
Seeded resampling, so the same inputs always give the same bands.
1,200 paths
03
Historical replay
8 past windows re-run with the same method; a calibrated 80% band holds about 80% of realised closes.
50% inside

Model sensitivities

Horizon	Median	80% band width	Replay coverage
7D	$0.193	±16.6%	68% of 80
30D	$0.1812	±33.9%	65% of 31
90D	$0.1605	±54.8%	50% of 8
1Y	$0.0874	±72.7%	—

Band width grows roughly with the square root of the horizon, as expected for independent daily draws.

Technical details

Log returns from the trailing 365 daily closes are drawn with replacement (a stationary bootstrap with a fixed seed per asset, horizon and reference date, so the output is reproducible). Percentiles of the cumulative return across paths form the 50%, 80% and 95% bands. The historical replay refits the same method on rolling 120-day windows of the past year and counts how often the realised close landed inside the 80% band. No drift, volatility clustering or external signals are modelled.

Risks and limitations

The sample is one year of this asset’s history. Events outside it, such as a delisting, an exploit or a regime change, are not represented.
Daily returns are drawn independently, so volatility clustering and trends are understated. Real drawdowns can run deeper and longer than the bands.
The bands describe the model’s outcomes. They are not a probability that the price reaches any level, and nothing here is a recommendation.

Probabilistic scenario analysis from public Binance daily closes, recomputed daily. Not a guarantee or investment recommendation.

Computing Arbitrum’s price paths…

MARKET SIGNAL

Why Arbitrum reads neutral

Momentum supports the reading: 5 of 5 windows, 30-day move weighted highest. The evidence below produces a neutral reading of current conditions, not a price forecast.

Neutral46 / 100100% data coverage i

Score drivers i

Momentum55% weight+8.1 pts
Historical position20% weight-4.2 pts
Milestone recency15% weight-2.5 pts
Volume confirmation10% weight-5 pts

Historical position i

ATL$0.0705Now$0.1969ATH$2.39

29% of the way from the all-time low to the high, on a log scale.

Momentum evidence i

24h: -3.83%
7d: -11.31%
30d: +45.43%
200d: +83.48%
1y: -55.86%

Market context · not scored

Volume (24h): $191.3M
Turnover: 14.31%
Rank: #68
Circulating supply: 6.79B

How this score is calculated Model v1.0

The score starts at a neutral 50 and adds four bounded drivers. Momentum (55%) blends the 24h, 7d, 30d, 200d and 1y moves; each passes through a saturating curve (tanh of the move over a per-window scale of 5, 12, 25, 50 and 80 points) and is weighted 10, 20, 40, 20 and 10 percent. Historical position (20%) maps the log-scale position between the all-time low and high onto −10 to +10 points. Milestone recency (15%) adds up to 7.5 points for an all-time high inside the past 30, 90 or 365 days and subtracts the same for a recent low. Volume confirmation (10%) adds up to 5 points in the direction of the day’s move once 24h turnover exceeds 2% of market value, saturating at 10%.

Readings of 60 or more are labelled bullish, 40 or less bearish. Missing inputs contribute zero and lower the reported data coverage instead of being guessed.

TODAY’S TRADING

Arbitrum market analysis

Price movement i

24h low$0.1889Now$0.196924h high$0.208

42% of the way from the day's low to its high · 9.70% range width

1h: -0.65%
24h: -3.83%
7d: -11.31%
30d: +45.43%
200d: +83.48%
1y: -55.86%

Trading activity is active i

Turnover: 14.31%24h volume ÷ market cap. Above 8% reads as active, below 2% as quiet.
24h range: 9.70%High minus low as a share of the current price.
Range position: 42%0% is the day's low, 100% the high.

Volume is reported activity, not order-book liquidity. These figures describe observations, not a recommendation.

What if the price moves?

Starting price$0.1969

Scenario price$0.2166

Price change +10%

Change per ARB: $0.0197. A calculation, not a prediction.

WHERE IT TRADES

Arbitrum markets

Exchange pairs reported by CoinGecko. Venues that are unrated, stale, anomalous or wide-spread stay hidden until you ask for them.

This data isn't available right now.

FOLLOW THE STORY

Arbitrum news & coverage

Reporting that mentions Arbitrum, with the original publisher identified.

21:46

Arbitrum Pauses New Stylus Activations in Emergency Security ActionThe Defiant · Source article 10:00

Threat Intelligence | Analysis of FomoPeek App Store Poisoning and iOS Kernel ExploitationSlowMist · Source article

THE BASICS

About Arbitrum

No profile description is available for Arbitrum.

Arbitrum price today

Arbitrum price	$0.1969
24h change	-3.83%
24h low / high	$0.1889 / $0.208
Market cap	$1.34B
Market cap rank	#68
24h volume	$191.3M
Circulating supply	6.79B ARB
Total supply	10B ARB
Maximum supply	10B ARB
Fully diluted value	$1.97B
All-time high	$2.39 · January 12, 2024
All-time low	$0.0705 · June 26, 2026

Circulating 67.9% of maximum supply

What determines Arbitrum's market capitalisation?

Market cap is the latest price ($0.1969) multiplied by the circulating supply (6.79B ARB). It measures the value of units in circulation, not money invested.

Why can ARB prices differ between exchanges?

Each venue has its own order book, fees and liquidity. Prices converge through arbitrage but can differ by the spread, especially on smaller venues. The markets section lists reliable venues first.

How fresh is this data?

Prices come from CoinGecko and refresh about every minute; each figure shows its source and when it was read. If the provider is unavailable, the page says so rather than showing a stale or invented number.

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How to read this market file

Prices, capitalization and volume come from the displayed CoinGecko snapshot. Market capitalization and exchange volume describe different measures; neither is available liquidity for an order. Missing measurements remain blank. The chart opens the exact asset ID: arbitrum.

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