AVAX market file Rank #27

Avalanche

$10.09-9.47% 24h

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Updated 1m ago

Market signalNeutral54 / 10030D +35.01% · 93.0% below ATH

Market cap: $4.47B
Rank: #27
Volume (24h): $602.56M13.5% of cap
Circulating supply: 443.06Mof 720M max
Fully diluted value: $4.74B

PRICE HISTORY

Avalanche price chart

Loading Avalanche price history…

MODEL SCENARIOS

Avalanche price prediction

How far Avalanche could move over the coming weeks and months, read from its own past year of daily moves, with the evidence behind each range. Recomputed daily.

Horizon

Reference close$10.08

Median outcome$7.50 -25.6%

Target dateDec 23, 2026

AVAX 90-day range

Actual
Median
50%
80%
95%

Explore the horizon · Day 90 · Dec 23, 2026

$7.50 median -25.6% · 80% band $4.59–$12.53

Actual daily closes from Sep 25, 2025 to the $10.08 reference close on Sep 24, 2026. The median and the 50%, 80% and 95% bands extend to Dec 23, 2026.

How this prediction is built

Dextape resamples Avalanche’s own daily price changes to estimate a range of possible future prices. The model replays the observed daily returns in random order along 1,200 paths, then reads the spread of outcomes at each day of the horizon. It shows how wide outcomes have been, not where the price will go, and it is not investment advice.

01
Return sample
365 observed daily log returns from the trailing year, used as drawn.
365 days
02
Bootstrap paths
Seeded resampling, so the same inputs always give the same bands.
1,200 paths
03
Historical replay
8 past windows re-run with the same method; a calibrated 80% band holds about 80% of realised closes.
75% inside

Model sensitivities

Horizon	Median	80% band width	Replay coverage
7D	$9.84	±13.0%	85% of 80
30D	$9.22	±26.2%	65% of 31
90D	$7.50	±39.4%	75% of 8
1Y	$3.08	±36.1%	—

Band width grows roughly with the square root of the horizon, as expected for independent daily draws.

Technical details

Log returns from the trailing 365 daily closes are drawn with replacement (a stationary bootstrap with a fixed seed per asset, horizon and reference date, so the output is reproducible). Percentiles of the cumulative return across paths form the 50%, 80% and 95% bands. The historical replay refits the same method on rolling 120-day windows of the past year and counts how often the realised close landed inside the 80% band. No drift, volatility clustering or external signals are modelled.

Risks and limitations

The sample is one year of this asset’s history. Events outside it, such as a delisting, an exploit or a regime change, are not represented.
Daily returns are drawn independently, so volatility clustering and trends are understated. Real drawdowns can run deeper and longer than the bands.
The bands describe the model’s outcomes. They are not a probability that the price reaches any level, and nothing here is a recommendation.

Probabilistic scenario analysis from public Binance daily closes, recomputed daily. Not a guarantee or investment recommendation.

Computing Avalanche’s price paths…

MARKET SIGNAL

Why Avalanche reads neutral

Momentum supports the reading: 5 of 5 windows, 30-day move weighted highest. The evidence below produces a neutral reading of current conditions, not a price forecast.

Neutral54 / 100100% data coverage i

Score drivers i

Momentum55% weight+12 pts
Historical position20% weight-3.5 pts
Milestone recency15% weight0 pts
Volume confirmation10% weight-5 pts

Historical position i

ATL$2.80Now$10.09ATH$144.96

32% of the way from the all-time low to the high, on a log scale.

Momentum evidence i

24h: -9.47%
7d: +34.93%
30d: +35.01%
200d: +12.88%
1y: -70.23%

Market context · not scored

Volume (24h): $602.56M
Turnover: 13.48%
Rank: #27
Circulating supply: 443.06M

How this score is calculated Model v1.0

The score starts at a neutral 50 and adds four bounded drivers. Momentum (55%) blends the 24h, 7d, 30d, 200d and 1y moves; each passes through a saturating curve (tanh of the move over a per-window scale of 5, 12, 25, 50 and 80 points) and is weighted 10, 20, 40, 20 and 10 percent. Historical position (20%) maps the log-scale position between the all-time low and high onto −10 to +10 points. Milestone recency (15%) adds up to 7.5 points for an all-time high inside the past 30, 90 or 365 days and subtracts the same for a recent low. Volume confirmation (10%) adds up to 5 points in the direction of the day’s move once 24h turnover exceeds 2% of market value, saturating at 10%.

Readings of 60 or more are labelled bullish, 40 or less bearish. Missing inputs contribute zero and lower the reported data coverage instead of being guessed.

TODAY’S TRADING

Avalanche market analysis

Price movement i

24h low$10.09Now$10.0924h high$11.27

0% of the way from the day's low to its high · 11.69% range width

1h: -1.00%
24h: -9.47%
7d: +34.93%
30d: +35.01%
200d: +12.88%
1y: -70.23%

Trading activity is active i

Turnover: 13.48%24h volume ÷ market cap. Above 8% reads as active, below 2% as quiet.
24h range: 11.69%High minus low as a share of the current price.
Range position: 0%0% is the day's low, 100% the high.

Volume is reported activity, not order-book liquidity. These figures describe observations, not a recommendation.

What if the price moves?

Starting price$10.09

Scenario price$11.10

Price change +10%

Change per AVAX: $1.01. A calculation, not a prediction.

WHERE IT TRADES

Avalanche markets

Exchange pairs reported by CoinGecko. Venues that are unrated, stale, anomalous or wide-spread stay hidden until you ask for them.

The provider did not return trading pairs for Avalanche. No venue list is shown rather than a stale one.

Provider response: Provider cooling down; retry in 6s

FOLLOW THE STORY

Avalanche news & coverage

Reporting that mentions Avalanche, with the original publisher identified.

16:30Bybit Adds Support For Avalanche v1.15.0 Network UpgradeNewsBTC · Source article 06:04

Bitcoin Cash and Uniswap Explode by Double Digits as CME Announces Futures LaunchCryptoPotato · Source article 04:47

Avalanche price eyes 90% rally as tokenization demand lifts AVAXCoinJournal · Source article

THE BASICS

About Avalanche

No profile description is available for Avalanche.

Avalanche price today

Avalanche price	$10.09
24h change	-9.47%
24h low / high	$10.09 / $11.27
Market cap	$4.47B
Market cap rank	#27
24h volume	$602.56M
Circulating supply	443.06M AVAX
Total supply	469.73M AVAX
Maximum supply	720M AVAX
Fully diluted value	$4.74B
All-time high	$144.96 · November 21, 2021
All-time low	$2.80 · December 31, 2020

Circulating 61.5% of maximum supply

What determines Avalanche's market capitalisation?

Market cap is the latest price ($10.09) multiplied by the circulating supply (443.06M AVAX). It measures the value of units in circulation, not money invested.

Why can AVAX prices differ between exchanges?

Each venue has its own order book, fees and liquidity. Prices converge through arbitrage but can differ by the spread, especially on smaller venues. The markets section lists reliable venues first.

How fresh is this data?

Prices come from CoinGecko and refresh about every minute; each figure shows its source and when it was read. If the provider is unavailable, the page says so rather than showing a stale or invented number.

How to read this market file

Prices, capitalization and volume come from the displayed CoinGecko snapshot. Market capitalization and exchange volume describe different measures; neither is available liquidity for an order. Missing measurements remain blank. The chart opens the exact asset ID: avalanche-2.

Data sources and editorial standards →

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