LIT market file Rank #78 DeFi
Lighter
Lighter is a decentralized trading platform built for unmatched security and scale.
- Market cap
- $845.36M
- DeFi share
- 1.8%
- Volume (24h)
- $109.98M13.0% of cap
- Circulating supply
- 250Mof 1B max
- Fully diluted value
- $3.32B
PRICE HISTORY
Lighter price chart
MODEL SCENARIOS
Lighter price prediction
How far Lighter could move over the coming weeks and months, read from its own past year of daily moves, with the evidence behind each range. Recomputed daily.
- Actual
- Median
- 50%
- 80%
- 95%
$3.66 median +7.6% · 80% band $1.77–$8.03
Actual daily closes from Dec 30, 2025 to the $3.40 reference close on Nov 5, 2026. The median and the 50%, 80% and 95% bands extend to Feb 3, 2027.
How this prediction is built
Dextape resamples Lighter’s own daily price changes to estimate a range of possible future prices. The model replays the observed daily returns in random order along 1,200 paths, then reads the spread of outcomes at each day of the horizon. It shows how wide outcomes have been, not where the price will go, and it is not investment advice.
- 01Return sample310 days
310 observed daily log returns from the trailing year, used as drawn.
- 02Bootstrap paths1,200 paths
Seeded resampling, so the same inputs always give the same bands.
- 03Historical replay40% inside
5 past windows re-run with the same method; a calibrated 80% band holds about 80% of realised closes.
Model sensitivities
| Horizon | Median | 80% band width | Replay coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | $3.45 | ±22.6% | 79% of 62 |
| 30D | $3.47 | ±47.6% | 52% of 23 |
| 90D | $3.66 | ±92.0% | 40% of 5 |
| 1Y | $4.34 | ±266.2% | — |
Band width grows roughly with the square root of the horizon, as expected for independent daily draws.
Technical details
Log returns from the trailing 310 daily closes are drawn with replacement (a stationary bootstrap with a fixed seed per asset, horizon and reference date, so the output is reproducible). Percentiles of the cumulative return across paths form the 50%, 80% and 95% bands. The historical replay refits the same method on rolling 120-day windows of the past year and counts how often the realised close landed inside the 80% band. No drift, volatility clustering or external signals are modelled.
Risks and limitations
- The sample is one year of this asset’s history. Events outside it, such as a delisting, an exploit or a regime change, are not represented.
- Daily returns are drawn independently, so volatility clustering and trends are understated. Real drawdowns can run deeper and longer than the bands.
- The bands describe the model’s outcomes. They are not a probability that the price reaches any level, and nothing here is a recommendation.
Probabilistic scenario analysis from public CoinGecko daily closes, recomputed daily. Not a guarantee or investment recommendation.
MARKET SIGNAL
Why Lighter reads bullish
Momentum supports the reading: 4 of 5 windows, 30-day move weighted highest. The evidence below produces a bullish reading of current conditions, not a price forecast.
Score drivers i
- Momentum55% weight+7.2 pts
- Historical position20% weight+2.7 pts
- Milestone recency15% weight0 pts
- Volume confirmation10% weight+5 pts
Historical position i
63% of the way from the all-time low to the high, on a log scale.
Momentum evidence i
- 24h
- +0.81%
- 7d
- +14.42%
- 30d
- -9.55% Highest weight
- 200d
- +282.82%
- 1y
- —
Market context · not scored
- Volume (24h)
- $109.98M
- Turnover
- 13.01%
- Overall rank
- #78
- Circulating supply
- 250M
How this score is calculated Model v1.0
The score starts at a neutral 50 and adds four bounded drivers. Momentum (55%) blends the 24h, 7d, 30d, 200d and 1y moves; each passes through a saturating curve (tanh of the move over a per-window scale of 5, 12, 25, 50 and 80 points) and is weighted 10, 20, 40, 20 and 10 percent. Historical position (20%) maps the log-scale position between the all-time low and high onto −10 to +10 points. Milestone recency (15%) adds up to 7.5 points for an all-time high inside the past 30, 90 or 365 days and subtracts the same for a recent low. Volume confirmation (10%) adds up to 5 points in the direction of the day’s move once 24h turnover exceeds 2% of market value, saturating at 10%.
Readings of 60 or more are labelled bullish, 40 or less bearish. Missing inputs contribute zero and lower the reported data coverage instead of being guessed.
TODAY’S TRADING
Lighter market analysis
Price movement i
52% of the way from the day's low to its high · 8.58% range width
- 1h
- -1.49%
- 24h
- +0.81%
- 7d
- +14.42%
- 30d
- -9.55%
- 200d
- +282.82%
- 1y
- —
Trading activity is active i
- Turnover
- 13.01%24h volume ÷ market cap. Above 8% reads as active, below 2% as quiet.
- 24h range
- 8.58%High minus low as a share of the current price.
- Range position
- 52%0% is the day's low, 100% the high.
- Rank in DeFi
- 11 of 171By 24-hour price change among tracked peers.
Volume is reported activity, not order-book liquidity. These figures describe observations, not a recommendation.
What if the price moves?
Change per LIT: $0.338. A calculation, not a prediction.
WHERE IT TRADES
Lighter markets
Exchange pairs reported by CoinGecko. Venues that are unrated, stale, anomalous or wide-spread stay hidden until you ask for them.
| Exchange | Pair | Price | 24h volume | Spread | Trust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKX | LIT/USDT | $3.40 | $21.35M | 0.04% | Established |
| Bybit | LIT/USDT | $3.40 | $14.18M | 0.07% | Established |
| Coinbase Exchange | LIGHTER/USD | $3.40 | $5.71M | 0.09% | Established |
| Gate | LIT/USDT | $3.40 | $4.78M | 0.06% | Established |
| Upbit | LIT/KRW | $3.41 | $3.02M | 0.13% | Established |
| Kraken | LIGHTER/USD | $3.39 | $2.82M | 0.24% | Established |
| Bitget | LIT/USDT | $3.40 | $1.24M | 0.07% | Established |
| OKX | LIT/USDC | $3.39 | $1.23M | 0.08% | Established |
| KuCoin | LIT/USDT | $3.39 | $1.06M | 0.12% | Established |
| Bithumb | LIT/KRW | $3.38 | $562.93K | 0.22% | Established |
| OKX | LIT/EUR | $3.40 | $81.13K | 0.15% | Established |
FOLLOW THE STORY
Market headlines
Nothing on the wire mentions Lighter right now. These are the newest general market stories; they are not about Lighter.
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About Lighter
Lighter is a decentralized trading platform built for unmatched security and scale. It’s the first exchange to offer verifiable order matching and liquidations while delivering best-in-class performance on par with traditional exchanges.
Lighter price today
| Lighter price | $3.38 |
|---|---|
| 24h change | +0.81% |
| 24h low / high | $3.23 / $3.52 |
| Market cap | $845.36M |
| Market cap rank | #78 |
| 24h volume | $109.98M |
| Circulating supply | 250M LIT |
| Total supply | 981.91M LIT |
| Maximum supply | 1B LIT |
| Fully diluted value | $3.32B |
| All-time high | $7.86 · December 30, 2025 |
| All-time low | $0.7794 · March 31, 2026 |
What determines Lighter's market capitalisation?
Market cap is the latest price ($3.38) multiplied by the circulating supply (250M LIT). It measures the value of units in circulation, not money invested.
Why can LIT prices differ between exchanges?
Each venue has its own order book, fees and liquidity. Prices converge through arbitrage but can differ by the spread, especially on smaller venues. The markets section lists reliable venues first.
How fresh is this data?
Prices come from CoinGecko and refresh about every minute; each figure shows its source and when it was read. If the provider is unavailable, the page says so rather than showing a stale or invented number.
MARKET CONTEXT
More in DeFi
Other DeFi assets by market value, from the same CoinGecko snapshot.
COMPARE
Compare Lighter
Side by side with the largest assets: size, returns, supply and distance from all-time high.
How to read this market file
Prices, capitalization and volume come from the displayed CoinGecko snapshot. Market capitalization and exchange volume describe different measures; neither is available liquidity for an order. Missing measurements remain blank. The chart opens the exact asset ID: lighter.
Data sources and editorial standards →