Analysis · markets
Odds are a price on a rule
Dextape quotes prediction markets the way a paper quotes a futures pit: venue, contract, time, and the resolution text — never as a prophetic sidebar.
What happened
Crypto homepages now staple Polymarket percentages next to Bitcoin as if they were the same kind of number.
Why it matters
A 20% “yes” on a poorly specified identity question is not comparable to a 20% drawdown. Mixing them trains readers to treat gossip as a market.
Polymarket’s public API is a permitted source. Dextape caches it, stamps it, and links the event. We prefer crypto-tagged events and we drop closed contracts from the board. If the API fails, the Odds page says so. We do not backfill with a remembered percentage.
Use an odd as context on an asset page when the contract names that asset. Do not use it as a lead. The lead is still reporting: what happened, who said it, and what the tape did in the same window.
