DEXTAPE GUIDES
What prediction market odds actually tell you
Read market-implied probabilities with their resolution rules and liquidity in mind.
What you’ll learn · Beginner
- Start with the question
- Price and probability
- Separate markets
Start with the question
A prediction market concerns a defined outcome. The title is a summary; resolution terms determine what counts. A threshold reached at any time is not the same event as a closing price above that threshold.
Price and probability
The price of a binary contract is commonly interpreted as a market-implied probability. It reflects trading conditions and incentives, not objective certainty or a personalized recommendation.
Separate markets
An event may contain multiple markets whose outcomes overlap. Their displayed probabilities need not sum to 100%. Check whether outcomes are mutually exclusive before treating them as a distribution.
Practical limits
Spreads, fees, limited liquidity, and disagreement over resolution can affect prices. This site displays information only and does not accept bets, connect trading wallets, or execute orders.
Sources
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