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Stocks Rose a Year After Every Midterm Since 1982. Will 2026 Keep the Streak?
The S&P 500 has posted gains in the year after every US midterm since 1982. With Americans voting today, history favors stocks, but several macro risks could test that record. Bitcoin (BTC) has also finished higher a year after recent midterms.
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CNBC reports that the S&P 500 has climbed after every US midterm since 1982, finishing higher in all 11 cases and averaging a 13.7% one-year gain. CFRA strategist Arun Sundaram says the index has never declined across the 12 months starting in October of a midterm year since World War II. Sundaram views a Democratic sweep of Congress as the least favorable scenario, while geopolitics, especially the conflict with Iran, remains the main wild card. Bitcoin has ended higher after midterms, according to DWF Labs data showing rises of 25%, 45% and 92% a year later following the 2014, 2018 and 2022 votes. Its path was much rougher, with prices 31% and 46% below election-day closes three months after the 2014 and 2018 votes.
Why it matters: For crypto readers, bitcoin's midterm-year gains have followed a pattern, but its interim drawdowns were far deeper than stocks'.
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